Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4277
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4277 · MDW → ICT
departs 9:30 PM CT · arrives 11:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Sat 10/31 35%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 27%
Tue 11/3 25%
Wed 11/4 38%
Thu 11/5 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at ICT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ICT?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
ICT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,033 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
ICT (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.