Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4648
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4648 · MDW → RDU
departs 8:54 PM CT · arrives 11:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 29%
Thu 11/5 44%
Fri 11/6 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at MDW that day
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,033 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.