Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4648
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 4648 · MDW → RDU
departs 6:49 PM CT · arrives 9:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 44%
Fri 11/6 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.05 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.