Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4845
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4845 · LGA → MDW
departs 5:42 PM ET · arrives 6:54 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 53%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 45%
Thu 11/5 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,033 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.