Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4896
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4896 · HOU → OKC
departs 10:24 PM CT · arrives 11:57 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Sat 10/31 30%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 28%
Tue 11/3 28%
Wed 11/4 27%
Thu 11/5 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at OKC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OKC?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
OKC (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.