Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4904 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

WN 4904 · MDW → CLT

departs 7:03 PM CT · arrives 9:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±4 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from MDW are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at MDW that day

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4904 · MDW → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?