Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4923
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4923 · BNA → BHM
departs 10:57 PM CT · arrives 12:01 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Sat 10/31 36%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 28%
Tue 11/3 21%
Wed 11/4 23%
Thu 11/5 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at BHM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BHM?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.73 in
BHM (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.