AA 1018 · MIA → MCO

left the gate 8:36 AM ET · taxiing (scheduled 7:32 AM ET → 8:46 AM ET)

Your aircraft is N924US (A321), coming in as AA 2825 from LGA: landed 10:32 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

MCO (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1018 · MIA → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?