AA 1146 · SFO → CLT

took off 5:08 AM PT · expected to land 12:30 PM ET (scheduled 5:08 AM PT → 1:05 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CLT?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ CLT is busy at that time

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from SFO are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1146 · SFO → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?