AA 1277 · RDU → DCA

departs 5:59 AM ET · arrives 7:20 AM ET

Your aircraft is N834AW (A319), coming in as AA 1438 from DCA: landed 10:18 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1277 · RDU → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?