Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1919 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 2

AA 1919 · CLT → SDF

departs 10:37 PM ET · arrives 12:06 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1919 · CLT → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?