AA 2125 · MCO → MIA

took off 11:24 AM ET · expected to land 12:10 PM ET (scheduled 8:02 AM ET → 9:21 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
100%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.02 in

MIA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2125 · MCO → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?