AA 2165 · MCO → DCA

departs 7:03 AM ET · arrives 9:30 AM ET

Your aircraft is N964AN (B738), coming in as AA 3251 from MIA: landed 10:46 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↑ MCO is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2165 · MCO → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?