AA 2284 · MIA → AUS

took off 1:32 PM ET · expected to land 3:23 PM CT (scheduled 9:46 AM ET → 12:03 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
100%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2284 · MIA → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?