AA 3103 · DCA → TPA

took off 7:25 AM ET · expected to land 9:26 AM ET (scheduled 7:14 AM ET → 9:58 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to TPA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 767 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling767 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3103 · DCA → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?