AA 3151 · MIA → SAL

took off 1:23 PM ET · landed 2:56 PM CST (scheduled 12:00 PM ET → 1:48 PM CST)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SAL more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SAL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ SAL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.34 in

SAL (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3151 · MIA → SAL

Odds over time

How late did it get to SAL?