AA 3156 · MIA → TPA

took off 9:43 AM ET · landed 10:43 AM ET (scheduled 8:21 AM ET → 9:39 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to TPA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 767 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip1.35 in

TPA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling767 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3156 · MIA → TPA

Odds over time

How late did it get to TPA?