AA 3156 · TPA → MIA

took off 11:46 AM ET · landed 12:27 PM ET (scheduled 10:05 AM ET → 11:25 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MIA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at TPA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.30 in

MIA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3156 · TPA → MIA

Odds over time

How late did it get to MIA?