AA 3218 · MIA → MCO

took off 12:13 PM ET · landed 1:27 PM ET (scheduled 9:51 AM ET → 11:05 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MCO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
✓

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3218 · MIA → MCO

Odds over time

How late did it get to MCO?