Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 368 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 2

AA 368 · MIA → SDQ

departs 6:27 PM ET · arrives 9:56 PM AST

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at SDQ more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SDQ?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.7 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into SDQ at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.74 in

SDQ (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 368 · MIA → SDQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDQ?