AA 457 · DCA → ORD

took off 1:28 PM ET · landed 1:57 PM CT (scheduled 12:50 PM ET → 1:56 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ORD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 457 · DCA → ORD

Odds over time

How late did it get to ORD?