AA 465 · MIA → XPL

took off 2:01 PM ET · expected to land 3:37 PM CST (scheduled 10:12 AM ET → 12:05 PM CST)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at XPL more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to XPL?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
100%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ MIA is busy at that time

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at XPL

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

XPL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 465 · MIA → XPL

Odds over time

How late will it get to XPL?