AA 513 · BOS → DCA

took off 10:38 AM ET · landed 11:39 AM ET (scheduled 10:23 AM ET → 12:17 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DCA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 10am departures from BOS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 513 · BOS → DCA

Odds over time

How late did it get to DCA?