Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 627 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 2

AA 627 · CLT → ORD

departs 10:44 PM ET · arrives 11:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 627 · CLT → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?