Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3418 LANDED 1:17 AM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, November 2 Today

MQ 3418 · MIA → TPA

took off 12:37 AM ET · landed 1:17 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 17h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 767 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip1.35 in

TPA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling767 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3418 · MIA → TPA

Odds over time