MQ 3558 · MIA → DSM

departs 9:11 PM ET · arrives 11:51 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

82% chance · ±0 pts +40 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
16%
15–30 min late
43%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
13%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↑ 9pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ DSM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip1.35 in

DSM (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.55 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3558 · MIA → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?