MQ 3765 · DCA → MEM

departs 8:50 PM ET · arrives 10:06 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into MEM at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEM (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3765 · DCA → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?