MQ 3801 · MIA → ELH

took off 1:04 PM ET · expected to land 1:43 PM EST (scheduled 12:27 PM ET → 1:38 PM EST)

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ELH more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ELH?

LIVE

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
35%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 12pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ MIA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ELH

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

ELH (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3801 · MIA → ELH

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELH?