MQ 3826 · MIA → ELH

departs 2:02 PM ET · arrives 3:13 PM EST

Your aircraft is N359MH (E170), coming in as MQ 3545 from MHH: landed 1:41 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ELH more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ELH?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ MIA is busy at that time

↑ 2pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ELH

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ELH (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3826 · MIA → ELH

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELH?