MQ 3860 · AXA → MIA

departs 5:43 PM AST · arrives 7:57 PM ET

Your aircraft is N320BK (E170), coming in as MQ 3576 from MIA: in the air, landing about 5:17 PM AST, 19 min before departure (a tight turn, so this flight may leave late).

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

76% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
23%
15–30 min late
63%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

AXA (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3860 · AXA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?