MQ 3876 · CHA → DFW

took off 12:38 PM ET · expected to land 1:20 PM CT (scheduled 12:06 PM ET → 1:20 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

LIVE

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
35%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↑ Gusts to 33 kt forecast at DFW that day

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CHA

Weather at each end

CHA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts34 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility6.66667 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3876 · CHA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?