MQ 3931 · MIA → DTW

took off 3:29 PM ET · expected to land 6:17 PM ET (scheduled 3:08 PM ET → 6:09 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

55% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DTW?

LIVE

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
47%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 3pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ MIA is busy at that time

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3931 · MIA → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?