MQ 3956 · DCA → BUF

departs 4:16 PM ET · arrives 5:35 PM ET

Your aircraft is N229NN (E170), coming in as MQ 4252 from VPS: landed 3:46 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,167 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3956 · DCA → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?