MQ 3971 · DCA → ILM

departs 4:57 PM ET · arrives 6:29 PM ET

Your aircraft is N262NN (E170), coming in as MQ 3962 from ATL: landed 4:09 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ DCA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ ILM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ILM (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3971 · DCA → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?