MQ 4016 · TPA → MIA

departs 5:47 PM ET · arrives 6:55 PM ET

Your aircraft is N292NN (E170), coming in as MQ 4016 from MIA: still at MIA, due off about 4:35 PM ET, 31 min before departure (a tight turn, so this flight may leave late).

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
51%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling767 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.28 in

MIA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip1.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4016 · TPA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?