MQ 4023 · RIC → ORD

took off 12:42 PM ET · expected to land 1:14 PM CT (scheduled 12:34 PM ET → 1:42 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ RIC is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RIC (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4023 · RIC → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?