MQ 4023 · RIC → ORD

departs 12:36 PM ET · arrives 1:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at ORD that day

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC

Weather at each end

RIC (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility6.33333 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4023 · RIC → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?