MQ 4042 · DCA → CMH

departs 10:04 PM ET · arrives 11:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to CMH?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into CMH at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CMH (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4042 · DCA → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?