MQ 4053 · DCA → RSW

departs 3:01 PM ET · arrives 5:38 PM ET

Your aircraft is N204NN (E170), coming in as MQ 3991 from CLE: landed 2:01 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RSW?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at RSW that day

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RSW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.41 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4053 · DCA → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?