MQ 4090 · MIA → TLH

departs 4:16 PM ET · arrives 5:46 PM ET

Your aircraft is N247NN (E170), coming in as MQ 3569 from ELH: landed 3:19 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to TLH?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 4pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ MIA is busy at that time

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ MIA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TLH (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4090 · MIA → TLH

Odds over time

How late will it get to TLH?