MQ 4090 · TLH → MIA

departs 6:21 PM ET · arrives 7:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
42%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from TLH are often late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ TLH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

TLH (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

MIA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip1.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4090 · TLH → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?