MQ 4099 · OMA → MIA

took off 6:30 AM CT · expected to land 10:22 AM ET (scheduled 6:13 AM CT → 10:41 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Gusts to 33 kt, cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at OMA that day

↑ MQ's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from OMA are usually not late

Weather at each end

OMA (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.59 in

MIA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.58 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4099 · OMA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?