MQ 4159 · MIA → XNA

departs 9:39 PM ET · arrives 11:45 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

86% chance · ±0 pts +45 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to XNA?

On time or early
13%
15–30 min late
54%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Gusts to 31 kt forecast at XNA that day

↑ 9pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip1.35 in

XNA (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4159 · MIA → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?