MQ 4319 · EIS → MIA

took off 2:46 PM AST · expected to land 4:15 PM ET (scheduled 2:46 PM AST → 4:48 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at EIS that day

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ 2pm departures from EIS are usually not late

Weather at each end

EIS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

MIA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip1.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4319 · EIS → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?