OH 5183 · BGR → DCA

departs 4:21 PM ET · arrives 6:31 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BGR

Weather at each end

BGR (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5183 · BGR → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?