OH 5315 · DCA → ILM

departs 10:12 AM ET · arrives 11:55 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ILM (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5315 · DCA → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?