OH 5315 · ILM → DCA

departs 12:11 PM ET · arrives 1:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ILM

Weather at each end

ILM (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5315 · ILM → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?