OH 5407 · DCA → BHM

departs 2:54 PM ET · arrives 4:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BHM?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BHM (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5407 · DCA → BHM

Odds over time

How late will it get to BHM?