OH 5532 · IAH → DCA

departs 5:18 PM CT · arrives 9:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5532 · IAH → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?