RV 1646 · YYZ → MIA

departs 4:25 PM EST · arrives 7:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip1.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

RV 1646 · YYZ → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?